Update: The storm dropped more than 5 inches in one Upstate New York county. See rain totals and dramatic video in our latest coverage.
Original story is below:
Syracuse, N.Y. -- The northern edge of the remnants of tropical storm Debby is moving into Upstate New York this morning, threatening to bring flooding rain and scattered thunderstorms into tonight.
Several inches of rain could fall today on ground already soaked by rainfall over the past few weeks, leading to rapid runoff into streets and streams.
“Flash flooding is by far the greatest risk for this system,” the National Weather Service said. “However, a few storms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes could occur.”
Those severe storms could lead to power outages, especially because trees topple onto power lines more easily when the soil is saturated.
The latest forecasts show Debby moving faster and slightly more to the west than originally predicted, which has lowered the amount of rainfall in many areas. Syracuse is now expected to get a little over 2 inches instead of the 4 or more feared earlier this week.
Even in areas where the rainfall forecasts have dropped, however, flooding remains a concern if thunderstorms barrel through and wring out more moisture.
A flood watch has been expanded to include nearly all of Upstate New York until tonight.
The heaviest bands of rains are expected in a southwest-to-northeast line from Elmira through the Finger Lakes and into the North Country.
Watertown could get 3 to 4 inches of rain by sunset. That’s a month’s worth of rain in about 12 hours.
The two maps below show who’s likely to get hardest and when. The first shows projected rainfall from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. today, which will largely be in the Finger Lakes.
The second is for 2 to 8 p.m., where the worst of the storm will have moved into the North Country.
The intensity of rainfall from the remnants of tropical storm Debby has Upstate New York meteorologists concerned. This map shows how much rain is expected between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m. today.National Weather Service
This map shows the expected rainfall from 2 to 8 p.m. today as the remnants of Debby move quickly northward.National Weather Service
The sheer volume of rainfall is only half the flooding threat. The intensity at which the rain could fall, more than an inch an hour, could overwhelm smaller creeks and flood urban areas.
The remnants of Debby are moving parallel to the Appalachian Mountains, and are already soaking the ground across Upstate New York. The heaviest rain today will be between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m. for the Southern Tier and Central New York, and 2 to 8 p.m. for the North Country.
Not everyone will see rain heavy enough to cause flooding today, but nearly everyone could depending on the final path of the storm and how it interacts with a weak cold front.
The storm is moving quickly, so the intense rain won’t linger in any one spot, and it will be nearly done by midnight. That means the worst of the storm is over in 6 to 12 hours in any one location, although flooding could continue after that as water continues to cascade down hillsides and into already swollen creeks.
The greatest risk of severe thunderstorms storms is in the eastern Southern Tier, Catskills and Capital region. In those regions, there’s a 15% to 40% risk of storms with winds approaching 60 mph.
A tornado watch has been issued for northeast Pennsylvania and the lower Hudson Valley.
All but a handful of counties in Upstate New York are now under a flood watch (green) through tonight. The area shaded in yellow is under a tornado watch.National Weather Service