AFC South NFL preview: Odds, probabilities, and predictions for 2024

The AFC South is poised for a competitive 2024 NFL season, with the Houston Texans emerging as a surprising frontrunner in a division that remains wide open. The Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, and Indianapolis Colts are all set to challenge for the division title, making for an unpredictable race.

Based on 10,000 simulations of every 2024 NFL game conducted by the sports betting experts at Dimers.com, in this article you’ll find a detailed breakdown of the odds, probabilities, and full divisional schedule for the AFC South.

More 2024 NFL Division previews and betting bonus guides from Syracuse.com’s NFL coverage:

Team-by-Team Breakdown

Houston Texans: The Surprising Frontrunners

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) during an NFL football game against the New York Jets on Sunday, Dec. 10, 2023, in East Rutherford, N.J.AP

The Houston Texans enter the 2024 season as a surprising favorite to win the AFC South. With a 58.68% probability of making the playoffs and 7.02% odds of winning the Super Bowl, the Texans are no longer the underdogs they once were. This marks a significant turnaround, as they’ve become a team to watch this season.

Make Playoffs: -190 (Fair Odds: -142)
Miss Playoffs: +165 (Fair Odds: +142)
Super Bowl Odds: +800 (Fair Odds: +1325)
Average Season Wins: 9.3 (Most Frequent Result: 9 wins)
First Place Probability: 19.66%

Key Insight:The Texans’ rise in the division is supported by a favorable schedule and key player development. Their ability to capitalize on division matchups, particularly against the Colts and Jaguars, will be crucial to maintaining their position as frontrunners.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Lead Contenders

Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence — Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson meets with quarterback Trevor Lawrence while facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)AP

The Jacksonville Jaguars are solid contenders in the AFC South, with a 42.66% probability of making the playoffs and 3.21% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Jaguars, led by the continued development of Trevor Lawrence, are expected to challenge the Texans for the division title.

Make Playoffs: +120 (Fair Odds: +134)
Miss Playoffs: -150 (Fair Odds: -134)
Super Bowl Odds: +2800 (Fair Odds: +3015)
Average Season Wins: 8.47 (Most Frequent Result: 8 wins)
First Place Probability: 44.38%

Key Insight:The Jaguars have the talent and balance to make a serious push for the division title. Their success will hinge on winning key divisional games, especially against the Texans and Titans, to stay in the playoff hunt.

Indianapolis Colts: The Unpredictable Force

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) watches from the sideline during the first half of an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)AP

The Indianapolis Colts are a bit of a wildcard this season, with a 32.98% chance of making the playoffs and 3.49% odds of winning the Super Bowl. The Colts are in a rebuilding phase but have the potential to upset the balance of the division with some key wins.

Make Playoffs: +145 (Fair Odds: +203)
Miss Playoffs: -172 (Fair Odds: -203)
Super Bowl Odds: +2800 (Fair Odds: +2765)
Average Season Wins: 7.96 (Most Frequent Result: 8 wins)
First Place Probability: 15.84%

Key Insight:The Colts may not be the favorites, but their ability to compete in tight games could disrupt the playoff hopes of their rivals. If they can pull off a few upsets, particularly within the division, they could find themselves in the playoff conversation.

Tennessee Titans: The Fringe Challengers

Tennessee Titans quarterback Malik Willis scrambles during an NFL preseason game against the Seattle Seahawks on Saturday, Aug. 17, 2024, at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn.(AP Photo/John Amis)

The Tennessee Titans are facing an uphill battle in the 2024 season, with a 16.92% probability of making the playoffs and 1.18% odds of winning the Super Bowl. The Titans, while not favored, still possess the potential to challenge their division rivals if they can stay healthy and execute in close games.

Make Playoffs: +425 (Fair Odds: +491)
Miss Playoffs: -550 (Fair Odds: -491)
Super Bowl Odds: +9000 (Fair Odds: +8375)
Average Season Wins: 6.71 (Most Frequent Result: 7 wins)
First Place Probability: 16.92%

Key Insight:For the Titans, consistency will be key. If they can find stability on both sides of the ball and secure wins in critical matchups, particularly against the Texans and Jaguars, they might exceed expectations and contend for the division title.

Full AFC South Divisional Schedule

Here’s a detailed look at the AFC South divisional matchups for the 2024 season:

Week 1

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts - Sunday, September 8, 2024, 1:00 PM ET

Week 3

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars - Sunday, September 22, 2024, 1:00 PM ET

Week 6

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans - Sunday, October 13, 2024, 1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans - Sunday, October 13, 2024, 1:00 PM ET

Week 8

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans - Sunday, October 27, 2024, 1:00 PM ET

Week 11

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars - Sunday, November 10, 2024, 1:00 PM ET

Week 12

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans - Sunday, November 17, 2024, 1:00 PM ET

Week 14

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans - Sunday, December 1, 2024, 1:00 PM ET

Week 15

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars - Sunday, December 8, 2024, 1:00 PM ET

Week 17

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts - Sunday, December 22, 2024, 1:00 PM ET

Week 18

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans - Date and Time TBD

Conclusion

The AFC South is set for a compelling 2024 season. While the Jaguars are the favorites, the Titans could make things interesting, and the Colts and Texans have the potential to surprise. Keep an eye on the key divisional matchups as they will likely determine who emerges as the champion of this unpredictable division.

As you prepare for the season, consider the probabilities and odds and detailed above when making your predictions, and use NFL betting bonuses to protect your own funds. The AFC South promises to deliver some of the most intriguing storylines of the 2024 NFL season.